Wednesday, April 8, 2009

What is the strategy behind Bothner's strategy class??

University professors are dull, boring, droning, nagging Ph.D types hunched over a desk working on some abstract problems that no one cared about anyway..right?? go on, no shame in admitting it, most of us have (or had) a chronic case of clock-watching in class..




BUT, that impression ( in my head )has been gradually diminishing in the past few months or so since I joined Booth, and guys like Prof. Bothner are the reason. To illustrate, he came to the first Strategy & Structure class of this quarter, bright and early Saturday morning, took around 5 minutes to memorize everyone's (65) names by reading the name tags, and then asked all of us to keep our name tags aside!..I was sitting there wondering what he was upto, and then Bothner proceeded to name *everyone*, all 65 students by their names starting from the 1st row, without any help.. Many of them weird sounding Indian, Chinese and European names (no offense meant!), totally foreign sounding for the average American..but obviously Bothner is not the average American - or a dull, droning prof..
Towards the 30th name or thereabouts, there was pin-drop silence, everyone was noticably sitting up straighter, and (maybe) waiting for him to screw up..but he didn't..
Pulling such a gimmick in the middle of the class requires tons of brain power and a LOT of confidence..Which is awesome as it makes us want to concentrate in class and not go yaaaawn!!

So, if this was Bothner's strategy to let people know that he might cold call on people by their names, it worked pretty well..

Friday, April 3, 2009

Risk Analysis - Software projects

All of us in the technology industry know at least one "expert" on projects, who has the tremendous ability to come in after the fact and analyze why that particular project failed..these people are omnipresent, omniscient,all knowing people, and are almost always missing during the onset of the project and during crunch time..

I have met a few omnipresent, omniscient software gurus (OOSGs) in my lifetime, and have been scarred by a few of them. There used to be a time when I was in awe of these OOSGs, and have had conversations such as these :)

Me: Sir, why do s/w projects fail?
OOSG: We don't do a good job of analyzing what could go wrong
Me: But Sir, we did do a "decent" job of analyzing what could go wrong. and we even communicated to the stakeholders.
OOSG: HA! and what did they do?
Me(close to tears): They said that I was complaining and being negative and not a team player!
OOSG: You need a RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS! Don't you already have one??
Me: Yea, but we don't have time to spend on Risk Management when the project is failing and is in crunch mode!
OOSG: True, True! Oh well, nothing you can do then..you want to buy me a beer and complain a little more??

So, recently I decided to try to put together a simple risk analysis and management process. I came up with something, presented it to management and got their feedback. Funnily enough, it was very well received ..I have tried to reproduce a HIGHLY condensed version of it here..

RISK ANALYSIS and MANAGEMENT

Step 1: Don't think about RISKS!!
Just analyze if any of the classic mistakes apply to your project. Put a check mark against all of them that apply. (Thanks to Steve McConnell's website)

Step 2: Now, think about what might happen to the project as a result of these classic mistakes??
Ha! Now you have your risks.

Step 3: Classify these "risks" as "Highly probable" -> "Not probable" with appropriate classifications along the way.
Do this based on the occurance of the origin of the risk, in other words, the classic mistake. If the mistake has already occurred, there is a high probability of the risk and so on..

Step 4: Analyse what it will take to "FIX" the risk. Throw more people, push the schedule out, get drunk and bitch about it, whatever.

Step 5: How much will step 4 COST?? and plug in the probability of occurrence.

Step 6: Now, Stop!! Take a step back and determine the relative cost of this risk to the overall project cost. Based on this percentage, classify the impact to the project as HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW whatever.

Step 7. Communicate the risks to anyone involved, starting with the causes. If this doesn't get management's attention, get a new job.

Step 8: After a successful project deployment, celebrate with the OOSG and have him buy you the beer!

New Venture Competition in Chicago Booth

Boy, VCs (Venture Capitalists) are a mean, tough bunch of people to please. I had a taste of the days to come in the New Venture Challenge in Chicago Booth this week, and witnessed a total massacre of the first 4 teams (BTW, whom I personally thought were brilliant) by the 6 VC judges in the audience. My team presents in the next couple of weeks..I think that I now understand how a goat getting ready to be slaughtered feels..

Ok, so these guys know to ask insightful questions, that no one else had thought of and without pause or mercy. At the same time, it seems like there are some common themes that unite all of them. As part of a team that made its way into the 2nd phase of the New Venture Challenge, I sat in the first round of presentations. 4 teams comprising some extremely talented people presented their ideas for a venture and were promptly ripped into shreds by the 6 or so VCs present in the audience. Although everything was in good taste and the teams understood the points that the VC made, it was still an enlightening experience..

Some sample questions raised by the judges..


W - LOUD! What does the company do? (after the presentation that lasted about 20 minutes..!!) J - Can you raise more money and do it faster?
D - You are requiring 48 M in input money and will take 8 years to return 2M. This is too long.
L - What are the pain points that this service is addressing?
A - You need a lot of people running the show, call centers etc. But the cost you estimate is quite low. Are you confident about this?
W - You are showing EBITDA of 50% or more - is this realistic? You are not estimating the costs correctly.
S T - Talk about the networks you have, you need specific information on who these contacts are and what is the market size
S K - Your salaries are very low ! No one will want to work for you at those salaries..
S K: Specifics, specifics, specifics. Get down into the weeds and tell us how things are going to work.
B: This is a magical company as there is no cost associated with having an office, advertising, marketing etc.
W: LOUD. Technology is not present and "imaginary" proprietary software. Changing behavior is going to be very hard. You are just "Waving your hand on the technology"!!
J: What is the lifetime value to the customer?
B: What is your unique selling proposition?
A: How many suppliers are you talking about?

hmm..this is going to be an interesting quarter..